The United States has roughly 45 million fewer cattle today than it did 50 years ago. Many factors have contributed to this decline. While some are discussed frequently, others are rarely if ever mentioned.
Long-term droughts are the primary driver, followed by rising production costs. High cattle prices have further encouraged the sale of breeding stock rather than the retention of replacement females. Age demographics among producers and the rising cost and limited availability of labor have also played contributing roles.
Most people don’t realize it – but for 30-plus years, the national herd inventory has declined steadily and consistently:
- 104 million in 1996
- 97 million in 2006
- 92 million in 2016
- 87 million in 2026
I would like to add three additional factors that no one talks about – probably because status quo beef producers don’t want to hear the truth.
First, a large portion of seedstock has been selected primarily for terminal traits such as growth, ribeye area, and marbling over the past four decades. Fertility has greatly suffered as a result. Lower fertility means either higher nutritional input costs or a higher number of open cows culled at the end of the breeding season.
Second, selection for terminal traits has significantly reduced longevity. High-growth and carcass-oriented genetics do not last as long as maternal lines. Their elevated energy requirements and structural weaknesses prevent them from remaining productive into older age.
Third, the aggressive promotion of Certified Angus Beef and other branded programs has pushed unadapted genetics into hot and humid portions of the United States. Unadapted cattle suffer tropical degeneration and cannot stay in production long.
All three of these factors make it very difficult to maintain herd size – much less increase it.
As the industry attempts to rebuild the national herd, it is worth remembering that no premium is high enough – and no price discount low enough – to offset the lack of production from cattle that are neither nutritionally nor environmentally adapted to their conditions. Cow-calf producers must produce cows that are adapted to their forage resources and environment.
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